Edward Guinness, Fund Manager at Guinness Asset Management recently spoke with Green Energy Reporter and shared his views on the BP oil spill and how it may impact the U.S. renewable energy sector.
The full article can be found on the Green Energy Reporter website. Reproduced below are a selection of answers Edward gave to questions posed to him.
Is cleantech a trend or a long-term investment opportunity?
Edward Guinness: First off, we wouldn’t be investing in the sector if we did not think we could unearth value for our investors so, yes, we believe renewable energy offers long-term value. Various factors have, in a relatively short time, helped turn renewable energy into a vital global industry. One is the growing cost of extracting oil, both in dollar-terms and, as we’ve been witnessing in the Gulf, environmental. Also, there is the the fleet of coal-fired power plants, especially in the U.S., that continue to age and which will have to be replaced, most likely in this carbon-constrained world, by wind, solar or even biomass power plants.
Could the high cost of renewable energy compared to coal or natural gas hamper the sector’s growth?
EG: Yes, it’s undeniable that coal and natural gas are cheaper than wind or solar power. Is this a long-term trend? Historically, natural gas prices have been quite volatile. However, we do believe that natural gas prices are currently at a particular low point but in the next three-to-five years could trade north of $6. Also, it is important to note that the cost of solar power, for example, has fallen dramatically over the past couple of years, partly because of cheap PV production from China and better technology that have helped make solar generation a more efficient and cheaper proposition. We believe that by 2013 there will be price-parity between solar and traditional energy. So, overall the combination of rising gas prices, over the medium-to-long term and falling solar or wind power prices, will make the renewable energy sector an attractive investment opportunity.
One ongoing criticism about the cleantech sector is the over-reliance on government support. Can this industry succeed without government support?
EG: Over the near term the industry will have a hard time growing void of government support. However, over the medium and long-term, the industry, we believe, will grow on its own economic merits. Fueling that growth will be higher oil and gas prices and a lowering of the costs of alternative energy.

